鱼田堡煤矿矿井涌水量时间序列分析  

Time Series Analysis on Mine Inrush Water Quantity in Yutianbao Mine

作　　者：熊斌[1] 夏克勤[1] 

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学环境与土木工程学院地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,四川成都610059

出　　处：《煤炭科学技术》2009年第11期95-98,共4页Coal Science and Technology

摘　　要：为对鱼田堡煤矿矿井涌水量进行短期的预测,根据该矿矿井涌水量长期观测数据和降雨量数据,应用时间序列分析的方法,结合矿区实际情况,对矿区降雨量与各水平涌水量的相关性分析和渗透系数加权分析,并对结果进行残差分析,建立数学模型。研究结果表明,在大量的观测数据的基础之上,应用时间序列分析方法预测矿井涌水量是可行的。建模过程中将矿区的降雨和地表河流作为残差项考虑,使模型的精确度大幅提高。A short term prediction was conducted on the mine inrush water quantity in Yutiaibao Mine. According to the long term observation data of the mine inrush water quantity in Yutiaibao Mine and the rainfall data at Yutiaibao Mine Mining Area, in combined with the actual conditions of the mining area, the time series analysis method was applied to the relevant analysis and the penetration coefficient weighted analysis between the rainfall on the mining area and the mine inrush water quantity from each mine level. And a residual analysis was conducted on the results and a mathematical model was set up. The study resuhs showed that based on the great number of the observation data, the application of the time series analysis method to predict the mine inrush water quantity was feasible. During the process of the model establishment, the consideration of the rainfall and surface river on the mining area as the residual items could highly improve the accuracy of the model.

关 键 词：时间序列分析 涌水量 相关性分析 残差分析 

分 类 号：TD742.1[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]