基于灰色等维新息模型的能耗预测研究及应用  

Research and application of the energy consumption forecast based on gray model of equal dimensional innovation

作　　者：李光明[1] 蔡福俊[1] 张慧琳[2] 

机构地区：[1]陕西科技大学,陕西西安710021 [2]西北工业大学,陕西西安710129

出　　处：《微型机与应用》2009年第22期4-6,9,共4页Microcomputer & Its Applications

摘　　要：灰色系统理论将随机过程看成灰色过程,利用数据表面杂乱但整体有序的特点,挖掘潜在的本质规律。根据灰色系统理论的思想,在分析了传统GM(1,1)模型的基础上提出了改进的等维新息预测模型,利用Matlab强大的算法功能,实现了改进的等维新息灰色预测模型算法。通过对能耗预测的实例分析,并采用残差和后验差方法对预测的精度进行检验,验证了程序的准确性和可靠性,使得预测的精度得到有效的提高。The grey theory regards the stochastic process as the gray process, uses the data character of extrinsic randomicity and holistic regularity to find out the intrinsic rules of the system. According to grey system theory, the equal dimensional innovation model is introduced based on the analysis of the traditional GM（1,1） model, and realizes the improvement forecast model algorithms by using Matlab algorithm powerful features. Through the examples of forecasts of energy consumption analysis and the use of residuals and latter examines in predicting test procedures to verify the accuracy and reliability, making the precision of forecasts improved effectively.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 灰色理论 等维新息模型 精度评价 残差分析 

分 类 号：TP31[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]