辽中地区矿业城市生态承载力分析与预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Ecological Carrying Capacity in Mining Cities of Central Liaoning by System Dynamics Approach

作　　者：顾康康[1,2] 刘景双[2] 王洋[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽建筑工业学院建筑与规划学院,合肥230022 [2]中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,长春130012

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2009年第6期870-876,共7页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(2004CB418507)

摘　　要：辽中地区矿业城市是我国重要的能源生产和重工业基地,研究其生态承载力状况并预测其发展趋势,有利于区域经济、生态协调发展。基于资源保障率、环境承载力和社会经济增长相统一的原则,运用系统动力学方法建立了辽中地区矿业城市生态承载力评价模型,评价了1997-2006年研究区生态承载力状况,预测了2006-2020年研究区生态承载力变化趋势。结果表明:1997-2006年,辽中地区矿业城市生态承载力总体处于超载状态,但发展趋势差别显著。鞍山生态承载力指数从1.686下降到1.301,年均下降2.56%,但仍处于超载状态;抚顺生态承载力指数从1.169下降到0.909,年均下降2.49%,生态承载力从超载变为盈余;本溪生态承载力指数从1.070上升到1.249,年均上升1.56%,超载程度不断加大。2006-2020年,辽中地区矿业城市生态承载力总体上处于超载程度加大的趋势,鞍山、抚顺和本溪生态承载力指数年均增长率分别达到0.89%、1.56%和1.81%。作为矿业城市,鞍山、抚顺和本溪需要优先保障水资源和能源的供需平衡,改善水环境质量,从而达到生态承载力的提高。The mining cities in central Liaoning region are the important energy production and heavy industrial base of China, and the study on the ecological carrying capacity status （ECC） and the prediction of the developing trend in these areas are of great significant to the harmonious development between economy and ecology. Based on the unity of resources ensurence rate, environmental carrying capacity and socio-economic growth principle, the ECC model of the mining cities in central Liaoning region was established by system dynamics approach. The ECC status of the study region was evaluated through 1997 to 2006, and the developing trend for 2006-2020 was predicted. Results showed that： from 1997 to 2006, the ECC of the mining cities in central Liaoning region was overloaded in general, but the developing trend was regional specific. The ECC index of Anshan changed from 1.686 to 1.301, and averagely decreased by 2.56% per year, but the ECC was still overloaded. The ECC index of Fushun changed from 1.169 to 0.909, and averagely decreased by 2.49% per year, the ECC status changed from overload to surplus. The ECC index of Benxi elevated from 1.070 to 1.249, and averagely increased by 1.56% per year, the overloading extent was increasing constantly. Generally, from 2006 to 2020, the ECC of central Liaoning region was overloaded, of which the overloaded extent was increasing constantly, and the average increase rate of the ECC index per year for Anshan, Fushun and Benxi were 0.89%, 1.56% and 1.81%, respectively. In conclusion, as mining cities, Anshan, Fushun and Benxi should give priorities to the ensuring of water resource and energy resource supply, and improve the ecological carrying capacity.

关 键 词：资源保障率 环境承载力 社会经济发展 系统动力学 预测 矿业城市 

分 类 号：X171[环境科学与工程—环境科学]