多属性决策及D-S证据理论在底板突水决策中的应用  

APPLICATION OF MULTI-ATTRIBUTE DECISION AND D-S EVIDENCE THEORY TO WATER-INRUSH DECISION OF FLOOR IN MINING

作　　者：韩进[1] 施龙青[1] 翟培合[1] 李术才[2] 于小鸽[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学信息科学与工程学院,山东青岛266510 [2]山东大学岩土与结构工程研究中心,山东济南250061

出　　处：《岩石力学与工程学报》2009年第A02期3727-3732,共6页Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(50539080);山东省自然科学基金资助项目(Y2007F46);教育部博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20070424005);教育部科学技术研究重点项目(108158)

摘　　要：针对煤矿底板突水包含很多不确定因素和时空随机性的特点,探索多属性决策理论在底板突水预测中应用研究。采用案例统计与专家分析相结合的方法,赋予影响底板突水各种因素的权重,建立突水概率指数法的融合规则,提出突水概率指数法预测采场工作面底板突水的新方法。在获得底板突水概率指数的基础上,基于D-S证据理论,建立由突水、临界、不突水、不确定组成的识别框架,构建以富水性指数、构造指数、隔水层指数、水压指数、矿压指数为证据体的突水融合决策模型。通过在肥城煤田实例应用,说明经证据体的多次融合,能够提高突水概率的可信度,降低不确定性,证明基于多属性决策和D-S证据理论建立的工作面底板突水两级融合决策模型的有效性和可行性。In view of characteristics of coal mine water-inrush from floor containing a lot of uncertain factors and time-location randomness,the multi-attribute decision-making theory in the prediction of water-inrush from floor applied research is explored.With case statistics and expert analysis,the weights are governed to the factors which affect water-inrush from floor.The fusion rule is established for water-inrush probability ratio,and a new method of water-inrush probability ratio is put forward for water-inrush from floor.It provides a technique for decision-making water-inrush from floor with water-inrush probability ratio.Based on the D-S evidence theory,the frame of discernment including water-inrush,critical condition,no water-inrush and uncertain information,is proposed and the water-inrush integration decision-making model is established considering aquifer water-bearing ratio,structure ratio,water-resisting layer thickness ratio,underground water pressure ratio and underground pressure ratio as evidences.With the practical application examples in Feicheng coal field,it shows that the degree of confidence of water-inrush probability can be improved and indeterminacy is reduced by several times of information fusion,and the validity and feasibility of proposed model are proved.

关 键 词：采矿工程 多属性决策 D-S证据理论 底板突水 两级融合决策模型 

分 类 号：TD32[矿业工程—矿井建设]