中国城市房地产市场非理性运行特征及其风险比较研究——以35个典型城市为例  

作　　者：韩方娟[1] 唐根年[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学经贸管理学院,浙江杭州310023

出　　处：《现代物业（中旬刊）》2009年第10期10-12,71,共4页Modern Property Management

摘　　要：本文以中国35个典型城市作为研究对象,以突变理论为基础,构建中国房地产投资风险预警指标体系及其预警模型。以2000年-2008年35个城市房地产市场运行情况及其具体数据为基础计算城市房地产市场的风险得分,对中国房地产投资的风险轨迹与地域差异作了总结,并在此基础上对2009年中国房地产市场投资风险做了相关的预测及预警。Based on Catastrophe Theory, the risk forewarning index system of China＇s real estate market and its model was constructed. By analyzing 35 typical cities of China, the risk score of every city from 2000 to 2008 were calculated, and the risk track of real estate investment in China and geographical differences was analyzed, also the investment risk of China＇s real estate market in 2009 was forecasted and discussed in this paper.

关 键 词：突变理论 房地产 投资风险 预警 

分 类 号：F293.30[经济管理—国民经济]