河南省林州市食管癌人群现时生存分析  

Period survival analysis of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city of Henan province

作　　者：马雅婷[1] 连士勇[2] 刘志才[2] 程兰平[2] 李变云[2] 全培良[3] 陆建邦[3] 孙喜斌[3] 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学公共卫生学院,450001 [2]河南省林州市肿瘤医院流行病室 [3]河南省肿瘤防治研究办公室

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》2009年第12期1100-1104,共5页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的分析1988-2004年河南省林州市食管癌人群的生存水平及变化情况，评价当地食管癌二级预防及临床诊治工作的效果。方法从林州市肿瘤登记处抽取1988-2004年全部食管癌发病和死亡个案记录，剔除重复及仅有死亡证明书的病例，共获得有效分析的食管癌病例12160例，男性6914例，女性5246例。计算林州市食管癌患者1992、1997和2002年分性别和分年龄组的生存概率，与食管癌发病死亡数据连接。用现时生存分析方法和队列生存分析方法分别计算食管癌患者1990-1994年、1995-1999年、2000-2004年3个时期的5年观察生存率和相对生存率并进行Z检验。结果林州市食管癌患者在3个时期的5年相对生存率分别为28．24％、35．24％和40．76％，呈逐年上升趋势（z值分别为3．94、3．07，P值均〈0．05）。男性食管癌患者3个时期的5年观察生存率分别为13．67％、18．08％和22．46％，相对生存率分别为29．94％、36．96％和38．40％。女性食管癌患者3个时期的5年观察生存率分别为15．56％、19．29％和28．01％，相对生存率分别为26．78％、33．12％和43．70％。前两个时期男女食管癌患者的5年观察生存率和相对生存率比较，差异无统计学意义（观察生存率Z值分别为1．48、0．88，P值均〉0．05；相对生存率z值分别为1．27、1．50，P值均〉0．05）。而在第3个时期女性患者的观察生存率和相对生存率高于男性（观察生存率：Z=3．56，P〈0．05；相对生存率：Z=2．09，P〈0．05）。1995-1999年和2000-2004年两个时期现时生存分析方法计算出的相对生存率（分别为35．24％、40．76％）高于同时期队列生存分析方法的结果（分别为28．77％、33．35％）。结论林州市食管癌患者的生存率在不同时期呈逐渐升高趋势，反映出该地区食管癌的二级预防及临床诊疗水平在不断提高。Objective To analyze the survival level and variation of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city of Henan province from 1988 to 2004 ,and evaluate the effects of diagnosis and treatments on esophageal cancer in this area. Methods All incidence and death records for esophageal cancer during 1988 to 2004 were collected from Linzhou Tumor Registry. Cases with duplicate information or death certificate only were excluded. A total of 12 160 eases of esophageal cancer were collected, of which ,6914 cases were male, and 5246 eases were female. The sex-specific and age-specific probabilities of survival in 1992,1997 and 2002 were calculated and linked to the data of incidence and death on esophageal cancer in this area. Five-year observed survival rate and five-year relative survival rate during 1990 to 1994,1995 to 1999,2000 to 2004 were calculated respectively using period survival analysis and cohort survival analysis and Z test. Results The 5-year relative survival rates among the three-episode were 28.24% ,35.24% and 40. 76% respectively during 1988 to 2004. This showed an increasing trend by periods （Z values were 3.94 and 3.07,P 〈0. 05）. The 5-year observed survival rates in men among the three-episode were 13.67% , 18.08% and 22.46% respectively,the 5-year relative survival rates were 29.94%, 36. 96% and 38.40%. The 5-year observed survival rates in women among the three-episode were 15.56% , 19. 29% and 28.01% respectively, the 5- year relative survival rates were 26. 78% ,33.12% and 43.70%. During the two former periods,there was no significant difference in the 5-year observed survival rate and relative survival rate between men and women （ Z values of observed survival rate were 1.48 and 0. 88, P 〉 0.05. Z values of relative survival rate were 1.27 and 1.50,P 〉0. 05）. In the third period,the 5-year observed survival rate and relative survival rate in women was higher than that in men （ observed survival rate Z = 3.56, P 〈 0. 05 ; relative survival rate Z = 2. 09,P 〈0. 05）. The relative surviva

关 键 词：食管肿瘤 流行病学研究 生命统计 

分 类 号：R735.1[医药卫生—肿瘤]