三峡上游洪水预报实时校正方法应用比较  

Comparison of Upper Three Gorges Flood Forecast Real-time Calibration Methods

作　　者：李允军[1] 李春红[1] 

机构地区：[1]国网电力科学研究院/南京南瑞集团公司,江苏省南京市210003

出　　处：《水电自动化与大坝监测》2009年第6期73-76,共4页HYDROPOWER AUTOMATION AND DAM MONITORING

摘　　要：实时校正方法是提高洪水预报精度的有效途径。将误差序列实时校正、反馈模拟实时校正、卡尔曼滤波实时校正等方法,应用到三峡上游的洪水预报中,并针对各种方法阐述了其优缺点。误差序列实时校正简单实用,但是校正预见期较短;反馈模拟实时校正基于实测流量进行校正,但是要求实测点距较多;卡尔曼滤波校正准确度较高,不过原理复杂,较难确定滤波参数。最后对几种校正方法进行了分析比较。Real-time calibration is a very effective method to improve the flood forecast precision. This paper adopts three methods for the upper Three Gorges flood forecast, i. e. error revising method, feedback simulation method, and Kalman revising method, each having its advantages as well as its disadvantages. The error revising method is very simple and practical, but the revised time is very short; the process of feedback simulation method is based on real flow, but it needs many real flow points; the result of Kalman revising method is better, but it is very complex, its parameters are difficult to determine. Finally, the methods are compared.

关 键 词：实时校正 洪水预报 卡尔曼滤波 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]