中国区域可持续发展定量研究进展  

Quantitative study methods of regional sustainable development in China:a review

作　　者：张金萍[1,2] 秦耀辰[1] 张二勋[2] 

机构地区：[1]河南大学环境与规划学院,开封475001 [2]聊城大学环境与规划学院,聊城252059

出　　处：《生态学报》2009年第12期6702-6711,共10页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金资助项目(Q2005E01)

摘　　要：基于CNKI中出现区域可持续发展定量研究以来的核心期刊文献视角,对文献的年度分布、期刊分布进行统计分析,继而从社会-经济学方法、生态学方法、系统学方法、新兴方法4个方面透视区域可持续发展定量研究方法的变动过程及趋势。分析表明,伴随文献的逐年递增,定量研究所涉及的学科领域不断拓展;方法体系由单调走向丰富,但模型的作用有被夸大的趋势;研究内容以水平评价为主,其余评价内容较少涉及;多尺度及动态的时间序列研究全面铺开,但时空结合研究有待深入。系统科学、复杂性理论及空间信息技术的综合运用将促进区域可持续发展定量研究的进一步发展和完善。Intensification of Chinese research about sustainable development these last twenty years is reflected in the nature of peer-reviewed published output,analysis of which has been undertaken using the 19922008 record in the core Journal in CNKI. Statistical analysis shows that,apart from changes in the adoption and diffusion of research methods and its affect on the relative significance of enquiry types （social-economic,ecological,systematic and technical）,the study shows that,primarily,fields involving quantitative study are expanding. Secondly,the range of approaches and techniques deployed has become wider. Notably,the role of modeling has become augmented,even to the point of over-emphasis. Thirdly,evaluation of regional sustainable development receives progressively increased attention,at the expense of other evaluative studies. It is clear that multi-scale studies and dynamic time-series studies are typically comprehensive,and projects based on spatio-temporal analysis are in more demand than supply. In prospect is progress with integration of system science,complexity theory and spatial information technology. Accordingly,research output in the service of decision support for sustainable regional development is expected to offer even more than before.

关 键 词：区域可持续发展 定量研究模型 系统学方法 生态学方法 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]