交通影响分析中出行结构指标研究——以北京市为例  

Travel Structure Indicator of Traffic Impact Analysis——A Case Study of Beijing

作　　者：杜华兵[1] 陈金川[2] 刘铮[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通发展研究中心,北京100055 [2]北京市交通委员会,北京100053

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2009年第6期68-73,共6页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划重点课题(2006BAJ18B01);北京市优秀人才培养资助(20071A1100700389)

摘　　要：在建设项目的交通影响分析中,出行结构是表征研究年交通发展模式的重要特征指标.本文针对交通影响分析过程中出现的出行结构指标主观性强且缺乏科学依据的问题,在分析出行结构指标影响因素的基础上,以城市宏观模型为基础,充分考虑各因素对城市建设项目交通出行结构的影响,通过细化交通分区及出行人员分类等手段,构建了交通方式划分的多层次Logit模型.并以北京为实例标定模型参数,在此基础上采用聚类分析方法整合了出行结构研究成果,初步得出了北京市各分区以及轨道交通沿线出行结构的参考值,为建设项目的出行结构指标选取提供了一定的参考依据.In traffic impact analysis of construction project, the travel structure is a key index represents the transportation development model in the future. In some cases of traffic impact analysis, people judge travel structure subjectively. In this paper, base on the influencing factor analysis of travel structure index, the transportation district is refined and the travel classification is conducted with the city＇ s entire model as a foundation. Considering three kinds of influences to travel structure, the multi-level Logit model is developed for travel mode split. Finally, taking Beijing as an example to calibrate the model parameter, cluster analysis method is used to integrate the re search achievement of travel structure, which provides reference for travel structure index determination.

关 键 词：建设项目 出行结构 交通影响分析 多层次Logit模型 聚类分析 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]