基于干预分析技术的交通事故灰色预测模型研究  

Based research on Intervention Analysis of Traffic Accident Gray Model for Prediction

作　　者：廖鹏宇 梅冰松[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京市公安局公安交通管理局事故处,北京100012

出　　处：《道路交通与安全》2009年第3期39-40,64,共3页Road Traffic & Safety

摘　　要：加强对交通事故预测技术的研究,以便根据交通事故未来趋势变化提出有针对性的预防措施。在北京市交通事故数据的基础上,提出利用干预分析技术对传统的灰色预测模型进行修正,提高在政策干预等特殊事件影响下交通事故的预测准确度,为交通事故预防提供科学的依据。With the continuous development of our country＇s information system in public security of traffic management, traffic management value crash prediction in order to put forward the prevention measure according to the future trend of the traffic accident variety. This paper takes traffic accident data of Beijing as foundation and puts forward making use of intervention analysis technique to correct the gray model. There is an aim to promote accuracy of traffic accident predict in special affairs influence,and it can be used of providing prevention of traffic accidents decisions as a scientific basis material.

关 键 词：干预分析 交通事故预测 灰色模型 

分 类 号：U491.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] N941.5[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]