山东省1970年-2005年肝癌死亡率的变化趋势  

A trend of liver cancer mortality in Shandong Province in the period of 1970-2005

作　　者：刁玉涛[1,2] 李会庆[1] 尹畅[1] 马清[1] 王燕[2] 崔永春[1] 徐爱强[3] 马吉祥[3] 郭晓雷[3] 

机构地区：[1]山东省医学科学院基础医学研究所,山东济南250062 [2]山东大学公共卫生学院,山东济南250012 [3]山东省疾病预防控制中心,山东济南250014

出　　处：《实用肿瘤杂志》2009年第6期578-582,共5页Journal of Practical Oncology

摘　　要：目的分析山东省1970年-2005年肝癌死亡率的时间变化趋势。方法利用1970年-2005年期间的4次全死因调查资料,计算肝癌死亡率和世界人口标化死亡率,Jo inpo in t回归软件分析肝癌死亡率的升降速率及长时期的变化特征。结果山东省肝癌死亡率在1970年-1974年期间的年均增长速率为9.7%,1974年-1992年为2.6%;1992年后年均增长速率减慢,为0.1%。结论山东省1970年-2005年肝癌死亡率呈上升趋势,前期上升速率比较高。40-59岁人群肝癌高发。Objective To analyze the trend of liver cancer mortality based on the surveillance data from 1970 to 2005 in Shandong Province. Methods Comprehensive death survey data covering 1970 to 2005 were collected in Shandong Province. Then crude mortality rate of liver cancer and standardized mortality rates adjusted according to 1976 world population were calculated. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the fluctuation and long-term trends of standardized mortality rates of liver cancer. Results The mortality rate of liver cancer in Shandong Province showed a constantly increasing trend from 1970 to 1992,with an annual increase rate of 9.67% in the period of 1970 to 1974 and 2.62% during 1974 to 1992. The increase rate was slowly falling from the year of 1992,which was 0. 14%. Conclusion The mortality rate of liver cancer showed an ascending trend from 1970 to 2005,and people aged 40-59 presented higher mortality rate.

关 键 词：肝肿瘤 死亡率 回归分析 回顾性研究 

分 类 号：R735.7[医药卫生—肿瘤]