基于概率论与可信性理论的不确定性设计方法  

Uncertainty Design Method Using Probability Theory and Credibility Theory

作　　者：李晓斌[1,2] 王林[2] 金振中[2] 

机构地区：[1]92493部队博士后科研工作站,辽宁葫芦岛125000 [2]92941部队．辽宁葫芦岛125000

出　　处：《弹箭与制导学报》2009年第6期245-248,252,共5页Journal of Projectiles,Rockets,Missiles and Guidance

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金(200801491,2008044021)资助

摘　　要：综合应用概率论和可信性理论对随机和可认知混合不确定性参数进行建模,提出了基于概率论和可信性理论的不确定性设计方法。以固体火箭发动机燃烧室壳体不确定性设计为算例,验证了该不确定性设计方法的可行性。实际工程应用中,采用近似方法生成近似模型,将计算复杂的系统响应模型替换为计算简单的近似模型,可大大提高该方法的效率。The method of the uncertainty design using probability theory and credibility theory have been presented, which provides us with a useful modeling tool for random and epistemic parameter uncertainty. The feasibility of this method has been validated by the solid rocket motor case uncertainty design. In engineering applications, the efficiency of the presented method can be improved by replacing computation complicated system response model with computation simple approximate model which constructed by approximation method.

关 键 词：不确定性设计 概率论 可信性理论 固体火箭发动机 

分 类 号：V435.22[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]