人口与消费对碳排放影响的分析模型与实证  

Analysis Model and Empirical Study of Impacts from Population and Consumption on Carbon Emissions

作　　者：朱勤[1,2] 彭希哲[1] 陆志明[1] 于娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学公共管理与公共政策研究国家创新基地,上海200433 [2]南通大学计算机科学与技术学院,江苏南通226019

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2010年第2期98-102,共5页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划重大项目专题(编号:2007BAC03A11-05);中国博士后科学基金项目(编号:20080440573);江苏省高校"青蓝工程"优秀青年骨干教师培养项目(2008)

摘　　要：从消费压力人口视角探讨碳排放问题,有利于正确判断和把握气候变化压力的人文因素,以及人口与消费可持续发展的动力学机制。本文通过对STIRPAT模型的扩展,应用岭回归方法计量分析人口、消费及技术因素对碳排放的影响。对我国1980至2007年碳排放情况的统计实证结果表明,扩展的STIRPAT模型对中国国情有较高的解释力。居民消费水平、人口城市化率、人口规模三个因素对我国碳排放总量的变化影响明显;现阶段我国居民消费水平与人口结构变化对碳排放的影响力已高于人口规模变化的影响力,居民消费水平与消费模式等人文因素的变化有可能成为我国碳排放的新的增长点;技术进步因素在此模型中对我国该阶段碳排放的解释力有限,表明我国未来通过技术进步减缓碳排放的潜力巨大。With the development of social economy, the influences from China＇ s population and consumption on carbon emission are getting increasingly deeper. An extended STIRPAT model is established in this article, hnpacts from population, consumption and technology on carbon emissions are analyzed econometrically with the ridge regression method. Empirical results of China＇ s carbon emission from 1980 to 2007 demonstrate that the extended STIRPAT model has high explanatory power for China＇ s realities. The impacts of the urbanization rate, the household consumption level and the population scale have more explanatory power to the quantity change regularity of China＇ s carbon emission, which is more influenced by the urbanization rate and the household consumption level than the population size at the present stage. Both the changes of household consumption level and consumption pattern have possibilities of boing new growth points for China＇s carbon emission. The impacts of technology has limited explanatory power to China＇s carbon emission, thus means China has tremendous potential for future carbon emission reduction through technology progress.

关 键 词：人口 消费 碳排放 STIRPAT扩展模型 岭回归 

分 类 号：N94[自然科学总论—系统科学] X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]