基于时间序列的胶结充填体变形预测  

Deformation prediction of cemented backfilling body based on time series model

作　　者：王莉[1] 赵彬[2] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁工程技术大学安全科学与工程学院,辽宁阜新123000 [2]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《化工矿物与加工》2010年第1期27-30,共4页Industrial Minerals & Processing

摘　　要：充填体沉降变形易导致其失去充填空区、支撑围岩及预防岩爆、岩层冒落的作用。为准确预测充填体的变形,建立时间序列GM(1,1)-AR(2)预测模型,对安庆铜矿灰砂比为1∶8、1∶10与1∶12的胶结充填体变形进行预测,以128至164 d的变形值为拟合样本,预测170至182 d的变形值,最大误差仅为0.825%,最小误差为0.185%,置信度远高于95%。该研究为深井矿山安全、高效回采提供了科学依据。In order to predict the subside deformation of backfilling body well and truly, the time serious prediction model of GM（1,1） - AR（2） was established and used in Anqin Copper Mine as example to predict the deformation of cemented backfilling body with 1 ： 8, 1 ： 10 and 1 ： 12 of the mass ration of cement to railings. During this process, the deformation values between 128 and 164 d were used as fitting samples, to predict the deformation values between 170 and 182 d, with 0.825% of the max error, 0. 185% of the min error and more than 95 % of the belief degree. This study provide basis for safe and efficient mining in deep mine.

关 键 词：充填采矿法 胶结充填体 时间序列 变形 预测 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TD823[矿业工程—煤矿开采]