电力负荷季节指数的测定和分析  

Measurement and analysis of seasonal index of power load

作　　者：贺辉[1] 刘清良[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南省电力公司调度通信局,长沙410007 [2]湖南省电力公司永州电业局,湖南永州425000

出　　处：《电力需求侧管理》2010年第1期33-36,共4页Power Demand Side Management

摘　　要：电力负荷是时刻变化的,具有鲜明的周期性和季节性。通过简单平均法、移动平均比率法和最小平方趋势剔除法对2000—2008年的月电量计算季节指数,揭示电量随时间推移而变化的规律性,并通过误差分析比较各种方法结果的优劣,为中长期负荷预测提供了依据。Power load has the characteristics of time-varying, and distinctive nature of periodical and seasonal. Based on the average seasonal index method, the moving average ratio method and the least square trends eliminating method, the seasonal index of monthly power consumption during the year 2000- 2008 was calculated in this paper. The seasonal index indicates the variation regularity of the time-dependent power consumption. Utilizing error analysis, the merits and demerits of different methods above are compared in detail, and which provide references to medium and long term load forecasting in the future.

关 键 词：负荷预测 周期性 季节指数 

分 类 号：F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]