城市防灾减灾综合能力的定量分析  

Quantitative Analysis of Comprehensive Ability of Urban Disaster Prevention and Mitigation

作　　者：周彪[1] 周军学[1] 周晓猛[1] 杨勇[2] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300071 [2]天津市环境保护科学研究院,天津300191

出　　处：《防灾科技学院学报》2010年第1期104-112,共9页Journal of Institute of Disaster Prevention

基　　金：天津市应用基础与前沿技术研究计划面上项目支持(项目编号08JCYBJC10700)

摘　　要：随着全球气候异变,灾害日益频繁,城市防灾减灾综合能力日益引起人们的关注。本文采用频率统计法、特尔菲专家咨询法以及理论与实际分析法对预选指标进行层层筛选,确定城市防灾减灾综合能力评估的指标体系。然后采用改进的层次分析法以及灰色投影关联法,提出了城市防灾减灾综合能力定量分析与评价的模型。最后,通过实地调查、收集数据,对天津市2005—2007年的城市防灾减灾综合能力进行定量分析。结果表明:2005、2006、2007年天津市防灾减灾综合能力指数为0.4593、0.5778、0.6178;理论分析和实地察看表明,该方法不仅对城市防灾减灾综合能力的评价是可行的、可靠的、客观的,而且能很好反映城市防灾减灾工作的现状,是适合中国城市进行城市防灾减灾综合能力定量计算与分析的方法。More and more people are paying attention to the comprehensive ability of urban disaster prevention and mitigation, since a great number of disasters took place in most of the world, as a result of climatic anomaly. In the present paper, frequency statistics method is used to collect the indexes, which is used frequently; then, Delphi expert consultation law （Delphi） is undertaken to skip some indexes, which is not in accordance with the characters of object; finally, methods of analysis theory and practice （ATP） is applied to skip or make replacement of some unreasonable indexes, so as to make the foundation for the evaluation. In addition, a model with the combination of improved AHP and grey relation projection method （GRP） is proposed to carry out the evaluation of comprehensive ability of urban disaster prevention and mitigation by means of field investigation and collecting data of Tianjin City from 2005 to 2008. We can draw the conclusion： the index of Tianjin from 2005 to 2008 is 0.4593,0.5778,0.6178, respectively, which is consistent with state quo; the method evaluates comprehensive ability of urban disaster prevention and mitigation feasibly, reliably, objectively, comprehensively and objectively, consequently; it is a good method for comprehensive ability of urban disaster prevention and mitigation in China.

关 键 词：城市防灾减灾综合能力 评价模型 定量分析 灰色投影关联法 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]