基于粗糙集理论的我国物流需求预测  

The Forecasting of Logistics Demand in China Based on Rough Set Theory

作　　者：冯怡[1] 张志勇[1,2] 徐广姝[1] 文培娜[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京物资学院物流学院,北京101149 [2]合肥工业大学管理学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《物流技术》2010年第1期60-62,共3页Logistics Technology

基　　金：北京市属市管高等学校人才强教计划资助项目

摘　　要：将粗糙集理论引入物流需求预测,首先对物流需求与经济关系进行分析后选取了预测指标,接着运用属性约简提取出关键指标,并根据各指标的重要程度得出一致、完备的预测规则。通过实证证明了该方法可有效处理物流需求与影响因素之间的强耦合与非线性关系,避免主观因素影响,是一种适用性强的预测方法。After introducing rough set theory into the forecasting of logistics demand, the paper firstly determines the forecasting indices based on an analysis of the relationship between logistics demand and the overall economy, then extracts from these the key indices using attribute reduction and finally, considering the relative importance of the indices, reaches a consistent and complete forecasting algorithm. The subse- quence empirical study verifies the validity of the preeedure in processing the strong coupling and nonlinear relations between logistics demands and their influence factors, which enables it to avoid the influence of subjective factors and achieve high applicability.

关 键 词：粗糙集 物流需求 预测 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济] F250