四川汶川8.0级地震前后中国大陆西部地震活动特征及震后趋势分析  

Analysis on Seismic Activity Characteristics in Western Chinese Mainland before and after M_s8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake in Sichuan Province and Seismic Activity Trend after Wenchuan Earthquake

作　　者：程建武[1,2] 董治平 

机构地区：[1]甘肃省地震局,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国地震局地质研究所,中国北京100039

出　　处：《华南地震》2009年第4期54-63,共10页South China Journal of Seismology

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划子专题(2006BAC01B03-04-05);全国地震活动状态动态评价系统的研制(20070820)联合资助;中国地震局兰州地震研究所论著编号:LC2009032

摘　　要：通过对汶川8.0级地震前后中国大陆地震活动特征的分析,探讨了汶川8.0级地震的地震活动背景,重新划分了中国大陆7级以上地震的活动周期,并根据汶川地震发生的构造背景分析了汶川地震对中国大陆活动趋势的影响和西部大三角与中国大陆强震活动趋势的关系。分析结果表明:在未来1～3年中国大陆特别是西部强震活动仍然处于活跃状态,有可能再次发生7级以上地震。With the occurrence of Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, the focus question turns to be the seismic activity trend of Chinese mainland after the mainshock. According to the analysis of seismic activity characteristics in Chinese mainland before and after the mainshoek, we discussed the seismic background of Wenchuan mainshock and remodified the activity period of strong earthquakes with Ms≥7.0. Based on the structure background of Wenchuan earthquake, we analyzed the impact of Wenchuan earthquake on seismic activity trend of Chinese mainland, and the seismic activity trend relation between the western large triangle and Chinese mainland. The results show that strong earthquake activity will continue to be active in the following 1-3 years and earthquakes with Ms≥7.0 maybe will occur again in Chinese mainland.

关 键 词：汶川8.0地震 中国大陆西部 强震活动趋势 西部大三角 

分 类 号：P315.728[天文地球—地震学]