浙江省台风灾害影响评估模型  

The Evaluation Model of Typhoon Disaster Influence on Zhejiang Province

作　　者：张永恒[1,2] 范广洲[1] 马清云 李泽椿 曹海维[3] 

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程学院高原大气与环境研究中心,成都610225 [2]国家气象中心,北京100081 [3]北京市观象台,北京100089

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2009年第6期772-776,共5页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题"亚洲台风-暴雨巨灾风险评估技术及应用研究"(2008BAC44B03)资助

摘　　要：选取2000—2006年影响浙江省的20个台风所造成的灾害进行分析,采用模糊数学原理和方法建立评估模型,在考虑台风本身自然灾变因素的基础上加入了致灾的社会、经济因素,组合成10个灾害影响因子输入模型,计算出台风综合评价指数,并利用数理统计分析方法将台风灾后的死亡人数、受伤人数和直接经济损失折算成规范化指数——灾级指数,用来表示实际灾情,并客观地将两指数划分为特别重大、重大、较重、一般4个等级,分别得到两指数各自的轻重灾害判据。对比分析表明:该灾害评估模型具有较高的拟合率,全部个例的两指数同级率达到了90%,错报等级也仅差一级,能够较好地评价和预测台风可能造成的损失程度,将其应用到应急管理中,可为台风防灾减灾工作提供决策支持。Based on the unceasing increase of economy and continual development of society,the loss from typhoon disaster is getting more fierce and fatal.So the scientific and objective evaluation model of typhoon disaster is very important for recovery from the disaster.Historical research shows that most evaluation methods centralize elements of natural disaster change,but ignore crucial factors about society and economy.Taking the social and economic factors into account,the Fuzzy Mathematics method is applied to analyze the disaster damage caused by 20 typhoons that have influenced on Zhejiang Province during the period from 2000 to 2006.Ten disaster impact factors are selected as model input and an index of every typhoon disaster can be obtained using the method.Meanwhile,the concept of disaster grade in Feng Lihua＇s work is used to translate the casualty and direct loss of every typhoon disaster into a normal index by means of numerical statistical analysis.Losses of typhoon disasters are divided into four grades as extreme great,heavy,and general by the two indexes.Comparison result shows that for 90% of the cases,the two indexes are accordant while the discrepancy for the rest 10% of cases is only one grade.So the model established can reasonably evaluate the losses caused by typhoon disaster of different density.The model is feasible in beforehand and fast evaluation of typhoon disasters based on the weather forecast and observation data as well as the economic data.It can offer directorial gist for emergency management,and support decision-making for disaster recovery.

关 键 词：台风灾害 模糊数学 评估模型 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]