基于层次分析法及BP神经网络的我国船舶订单预测研究  

Prediction Reaserch on China's Ship Orders on the Basis of Layer Analysis and BP Neural Network

作　　者：戴宝印[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学,上海200240

出　　处：《物流科技》2010年第2期77-80,共4页Logistics Sci-Tech

摘　　要：据中国船舶工业行业协会统计,2009年上半年全国船舶行业70户重点监测企业造船完工量1233万载重吨,同比增长60.2%,新承接船舶订单546万载重吨,同比下降80.7%;截至6月底,手持船舶订单16793万载重吨,比年初有较大幅度下降。在订单不足、造船能力快速释放的阶段,如何确保订单的安全性和稳定性成为当前造船企业的首要任务。从手持订单量出发,借助层次分析法和BP神经网络,对2009年我国造船行业做一个简单预测,以期对我国造船业的发展提供借鉴和参考。According to the statistics from China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry, for the first half-year of 2009, 70 key supervised corporates finished completion amount of 12.33 million DWT, a growth of 60.2 percent compared to the same period last year, and received new ship orders of 5.46 million DWT, decreased by 80.7 percent compared to the same period last year. At the end of June, handheld ship orders witness a big drop to 1.6793 billion DWT compared with the beginning of the year. In the stage when the orders are inadequate and the shipbuilding capability is releasing quickly, how to guarantee the safety and stability of orders becomes the primary task for shipbuilding eorporates. In the light of handheld orders, this article aims to predict the future performance of China＇s shipbuilding industry in the remaining of the year with the help of layer analysis and BP neural network so as to provide some useful reference for the development of the shipbuilding industry.

关 键 词：层次分析法 BP神经网络 手持船舶订单 预测 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]