可变模糊近似推理方法在径流中长期预报中的应用  

Variable Fuzzy Approximate Reasoning Method and Its Application in Mid and Long Term Runoff Forecasting

作　　者：李敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学土木水利学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2010年第2期16-18,共3页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50779005);大连理工大学青年教师科研启动基金资助项目(893370)

摘　　要：将可变模糊集理论与相似关系近似推理法相结合,提出基于相似关系的可变模糊近似推理方法,可通过变换可变参数得到多种可能的预报数值结果,经综合分析确定最终数值结果,并给出该数值实际发生的概率、可能的变动范围等多方面信息。大伙房水库年径流预报的实例表明,该方法预报中长期径流可获得较全面的信息,有助于深入分析和利用预报值。Combining variable fuzzy set theory with similarity relation based approximate reasoning method, a forecasting method, named variable fuzzy approximate reasoning method, is proposed to gain the actual probability of occurrence and possible range of change for runoff by transforming the variable parameter to obtain many probable forecasting values and determining the eventual result. The case study of annual runoff forecasting of Dahuofang Reservoir shows that the result obtained by this method contains more information, which is helpful to analyze and use the forecast value.

关 键 词：可变模糊集 近似推理 相似关系 中长期径流预报 

分 类 号：P338.2[天文地球—水文科学]