昆明市特征污染物增长的环境库兹涅茨特征研究  

Environmental Kuznets Characteristics of Specific Pollutant Growth in Kunming City

作　　者：马丽珠[1] 陈建中[1] 刘丽萍[2] 何丽萍[2] 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学环境科学与工程学院,昆明650093 [2]云南省环境科学研究院,昆明650034

出　　处：《四川环境》2010年第1期84-86,90,共4页Sichuan Environment

摘　　要：本文通过对昆明市主城区2002—2007年人均GDP与城市污染物增长数据进行分析并拟合，计算表明：昆明市主城区工业废水排放倒“U”型曲线的转折点位于人均GDP24785．72元处，对应的工业废水峰值，约1426．77万吨。S02排放倒“U”型曲线转折点位于24005元处，而对应的S02排放峰值，约29417．6吨。说明昆明市工业废水及S02污染已经越过EKC的理论计算转折点，将来一段时间昆明市污染物排放总量将会继续减缓。Correlation analysis and fitting between the annual statistics of per capita GDP and total municipal pollutants in Kunming City from 2002 to 2007 was conducted. It showed that invert U-shape Kuznets existed between these two indicators. The simulated calculation illustrated that at the turning point of industrial wastewater discharge, the per capita GDP would be 24785.72 yuan, at which the corresponding maximal industrial wastewater discharge would be 14. 2677 miUion tons. That for SO2 emission would be 24005 yuan and 29417.6 tons respectively. It indicated that the industrial wastewater discharge and SO2 emission in Kunming City had crossed the theoretical turning points of EKC. Therefore the future municipal pollutants discharge would keep reduction with the economic growth.

关 键 词：昆明市主城区 工业废水 SO2 经济增长 环境库兹涅茨曲线 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]