城市综合承灾能力评价  

Assessment of urban integrated disaster-bearing capacity

作　　者：张明媛[1] 袁永博[1] 周晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学土木水利学院,辽宁大连116085

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2010年第1期90-96,共7页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50378012)

摘　　要：不同的灾害对城市的作用方式和城市的受灾反应都是不同的,但其不同点系存在于某些特定方面,而从宏观和本质上来看,城市对灾害的反应是有很大共性的,找出并掌握这些共性,也就抓住了城市综合灾害管理的核心和实质。鉴于以往在城市灾害研究中涉及的定义、研究内容和范围的不明确,首先进行了分析比较,给出了明确的划分,并提出用"承灾能力"来"统摄"全局,按照面对灾害作用下的逻辑和时间顺序,通过对城市功能的分析,提出由防灾能力、抗灾能力、救灾能力和恢复能力作为城市承灾能力的组成部分,并按照城市的社会、经济、环境三大功能分别设置了各种能力的评价指标。通过数据搜集和分析,先后应用层次分析法和区间数的模糊可变识别方法得出了全国省会城市和包括4个直辖市在内的共29个城市2003年的城市承灾能力对比结果。结果表明,目前国内大城市的综合承灾能力普遍较弱,亟待加强防灾减灾建设。The ways disasters act on urb and the urban responses are different but they still have obvious common characteristics in microscopy and essence. Finding out and mastering the commonness make senses to the urban integrated disaster management. Due to indetermination of the conception, content and area in pass research, this paper analyzes and compares the characteristics and then presents the ＂disaster-bearing capacity＂ as the unity. Based on the analysis of urban function, it is suggested that the disaster-bearing capacity is constituted by disaster-prevention capacity,disaster-resistance capacity, disaster-rescure capabitily and disaster-recovery capacity. The assessment indexes were set up according to the three important functions of urb ： society, economy and environment. After data collection and disposal, the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） and variable fuzzy identifying methods for threshold were applied to calculate the result of urban disaster-beating capacity of 29 cities in 2003. At present, the integrated disaster-bearing capacity of most domestic cities is weak so that the construction of disaster prevention and reduction needs to be promoted.

关 键 词：城市 承灾能力 评价指标 层次分析法 模糊可变识别 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]