CPI指数预测的统计回归模型  

The statistical regression model of CPI index forecast

作　　者：杨凌云[1] 王凡彬[1,2] 潘瑞[1] 梁杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]内江师范学院数学与信息科学学院,四川内江641112 [2]四川省高等学校数值仿真重点实验室,四川内江641112

出　　处：《重庆文理学院学报（自然科学版）》2010年第1期38-41,共4页Journal of Chongqing University of Arts and Sciences

基　　金：内江师范学院数学与信息科学学院大学生科研项目

摘　　要：对CPI值进行预测,对我国相应部门做出正确的宏观决策有积极意义.本文采用应用非常广泛的一类随机模型——统计回归模型,首先找到关于CPI指数变化的影响因素,搜集相关的大量数据;然后通过应用主成分分析法找出影响CPI的3个主要因素;最后基于3因素的数据,通过统计分析,建立回归模型,对短期内的情况进行预测.To predict the value of the CPI has a positive meaning tor that China＂ s relevant departments to make correct macro - strategies. A class of stochastic model, which was used very widely - the statistical regression model was used. First of all, the factors to influence CPI were found, and the related large amount of data was collected. Then through principal component analysis, three most important factors were found out. At last, based on the data of three factors, through statistical analysis, regression model was set up to conduct shortterm forecast.

关 键 词：统计回归模型 主成分分析法 CPI指数 预测 

分 类 号：O212.4[理学—概率论与数理统计]