基于前景理论的不确定条件下的风险决策和企业管理  

Risk Decision-Making and Enterprise Management under Uncertainty Condition Based on Prospect Theory

作　　者：赵树宽[1] 刘战礼[1] 迟远英[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学管理学院,长春130025 [2]长春工业大学管理学院,长春130025

出　　处：《科学学与科学技术管理》2010年第3期157-161,共5页Science of Science and Management of S.& T.

摘　　要：由于在生活中人们不可能获得与决策相关的全部信息和不可能具备全面判断问题的能力,因此人们的决策行为并非按照期望效用理论设想的那样是完全理性的,然而前景理论却对这类风险决策和管理工作具有重要的意义。分析了前景理论与期望效用理论在假设、原理、价值函数、权重函数、决策者关注点和应用范围的不同点;举例说明了前景理论在企业风险决策中的应用,如通过改变参照点改变风险偏好、利用损失和获得的敏感度不同改变风险偏好;探讨了前景理论在企业绩效管理、好坏消息公布和营销策略设计等管理中的应用。The human＇s decision-making cannot be completely rational as described in Expected Utility Theory because human could not get entire information to make decision; however, Prospect Theory has important influence on this area. First, the paper analyzes the difference of hypothesis, principle, value function and weighting function between Prospect Theory and Expected Utility Theory in order to fully understand Prospect Theory. Secondly, the paper illustrates Prospect Theory is applied into risk decisionmaking by enterprise, etc. changing risk preference thought changing reference point and difference of using loss and getting sensitivity. Finally, the paper discusses the application of Prospect Theory on management of performance, publishing good/bad news and marketing strategy design.

关 键 词：前景理论 风险决策 企业管理 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理]