恶性肿瘤死亡率预测模型的探讨  

An Inquiry of the Forecast Model of Malignant Tumor Mortality

作　　者：韩兢[1,2] 王洁贞[1,2] 胡平 李会庆[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]山东医科大学卫生统计教研室 [2]山东医学科学院基础所

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》1998年第5期5-8,共4页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

摘　　要：目的：探讨恶性肿瘤死亡率的预测模型。方法：利用山东省某县１９年恶性肿瘤死亡率资料，进行１０种单一模型及组合模型的拟合并进行预测。结果：（１）用同种单一模型对不同肿瘤死亡率进行预测是不合理的；（２）不同模型对同一肿瘤死亡率的预测结果有差异。结论：组合模型避免了单一模型的片面性，可用于恶性肿瘤死亡率的预测。Objective:to inquire into forecasting models of malignant tumor mortality Methods:Utilizing the tumor mortality data during 19 years in a certain county of Shandong Province,we simulate ten kinds of single models and combined model for forcasting.Result:(1)It is unreasonable to forecast different tumor mortality by the same single model;(2)The results of different single models to forecast the same tumor mortality are also various.Conclusion:Combined model can be used to forecast the malignant tumor mortality,avoiding the one-sidedness of single models.

关 键 词：数学模型 统计 预测 恶性肿瘤 死亡率 

分 类 号：R73－31[医药卫生—肿瘤]