大坝安全监测的混合回归模型研究  

Research on Mixed Regression Model of Dam Safety Monitoring

作　　者：程琳[1] 徐波[1] 吴波[1] 郑东健[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2010年第3期48-50,共3页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：中国水电工程顾问集团公司科技基金资助项目(CHC-KJ-2007-02);国家自然科学基金资助项目(50539030-1-3)

摘　　要：针对传统回归模型在测值分析时存在片面性的问题,提出采用串联和并联两类回归法的混合回归模型进行大坝监测资料分析,利用串联与并联两种回归模型对岩滩大坝的测值进行了分析和预报,并与逐步回归算法的结果进行了比较。结果表明,混合回归模型拟合与预测效果明显优于传统的回归模型。Aiming at the defect of the traditional regression model for analysis of the monitoring data, the mixed regression model which combines the series model with the parallel model is adopted to analyze the dam monitoring data in this paper. The monitoring data of Yantan dam is forecasted by the proposed model. Comparison with the results obtained by the successive regression method, it shows that the fitting and forecasting results of the mixed regression model are obvious better than those of the traditional regression model.

关 键 词：大坝安全监测 混合回归模型 串联模型 并联模型 测值预报 

分 类 号：TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]