一种改进的灰色预测模型研究及应用  

An Improved Gray Prediction System and its Application

作　　者：何童丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程学院数学系,四川成都610225

出　　处：《宜宾学院学报》2009年第12期47-49,共3页Journal of Yibin University

基　　金：四川省应用基础研究资助项目(2008JY0112)

摘　　要：灰色预测模型通常是GM模型，但预测精度有时不令人满意．在对模型GM做了进一步研究的基础上，提出了一个预测精度较高的新灰色预测模型，即“对数函数一幂函数变换”模型，它能提高离散数据的光滑度。从而拓宽了灰色预测模型的应用范围．利用此模型对四川某地区电网年历史负荷数据建模，预测出该地区1999～2010年的负荷值，试验结果表明该方法是可行且有效的．The GM model which is employed to predict data in gray system gives unwanted prediction accuracy. With the deep insight to the gray system prediction method, a new gray system prediction model with higher forecast accuracy is presented, and the model is named as Logarithmic Function -- Power Function Tranform. Since the model can improve the smoothness of the discrete data, the application field of the gray system prediction will be inevitably widened. The new prediction model build with historical load data of network at some area in Sichuan is used to forecast load data in the same area from 1999 to 2010, and the forecast result shows the ideal feasibility and validity.

关 键 词：灰色预测 幂函数 对数函数 电力负荷预测 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]