导弹落点精度的一种Bayes估计方法  

A Method of Bayes Estimation for Missile Accuracy of the Fall Points

作　　者：梁建波[1] 刘新学[1] 

机构地区：[1]第二炮兵工程学院603教研室,陕西西安710025

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2010年第2期227-231,共5页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

摘　　要：针对传统的区间估计法在导弹落点精度评定中不能完全反映实际情况的问题,本文在充分利用了各阶段试验信息的条件下提出了采用一种Bayes估计方法对导弹落点精度进行评定,并通过一组试验数据对该方法进行验证,结果表明本文所采用的方法比传统的区间估计法评定的导弹落点精度要高。Aimed to the issue that the traditional method of interval estimation in assessing missile accuracy of the fall points could not fully reflect the actual instance, a Bayes estimation method used for assessing missile accuracy of the fall points was proposed under the condition of making full use of the experimental information at every stage, and through a set of experimental data to verify this method. The results showed that this method was better than the traditional method of interval estimation in assessing missile accuracy of the fall points.

关 键 词：精度评定 BAYES估计 共轭分布 验前分布 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]