中国自然利率的测算——基于SVAR方法  

Measuring Chinese Natural Interest Rate——Based on SVAR Method

作　　者：田建强[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南大学管理科学与工程研究所,开封475001

出　　处：《管理评论》2010年第2期39-42,58,共5页Management Review

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学规划一般项目(08JA790032)

摘　　要：本文首先利用SVAR模型估计我国的自然利率水平,并在此基础上计算实际利率缺口,然后对实际利率缺口与通货膨胀率的关系进行研究。研究发现:我国实际利率长期低于自然利率;实际利率缺口与通货膨胀率负相关,实际利率缺口变大,通货膨胀率变小,反之则相反。分析表明,实际利率缺口作为宏观经济的重要指标能够反映通货膨胀的变化,利率政策制定部门应把实际利率缺口纳入到政策工具中。This article first uses SVAR model to assess Chinese natural interest level,then on this basis calculates the actual interest gap and finally does a research into the relationship between actual interest gap and inflation rate.The study finds：Chinese actual interest rate is,for a long time,lower than natural interest rate;actual interest gap has a negative correlation with inflation rate,that is,the larger the actual interest gap changes,the smaller the inflation rate does,vice versa.It is indicated that the actual interest gap,as an important macroeconomic index,reflects the inflation change,so the policymakers should incorporate the actual interest gap into the policy tools.

关 键 词：自然利率 SVAR模型 实际利率缺口 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学] F224