时滞和平衡含水率直接估计法的有效性分析  

Validation of the Method for Direct Estimation of Timelag and Equilibrium Moisture Content of Forest Fuel

作　　者：金森[1] 李亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学林学院,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《林业科学》2010年第2期95-102,共8页Scientia Silvae Sinicae

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(30771743);林业公益性行业科研专项(200804002);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(DL09CA15)

摘　　要：通过对不同直径落叶松枯枝含水率和环境条件的室内连续观测,分别使用Nelson模型和Simard模型作为平衡含水率响应模型,估计可燃物时滞和平衡含水率响应函数,然后以参数估计值预测可燃物含水率,分析比较建模样本数和平衡含水率模型不同对参数估计和含水率预测误差的影响。结果表明:1)基于Nelson模型的直接估计法在建模样本数较大时(84个),结果稳健,预测误差小,方法是有效的。2)采用Simard模型直接估计可燃物时滞和平衡含水率时,在建模样本数较少时,其预测效果不如Nelson模型,但当建模样本数较多(超过84)时,2个模型预测效果没有显著差别。Nelson （1984） and Simard （1968） model was used as a model of equilibrium moisture content,and we estimated the equilibrium moisture content function and timelag ,and then forecasted fuel moisture content using the estimated value as parameters,and finally analyzed the impact of different modeling sample size and the model of equilibrium moisture content on parameter estimation and moisture content forecast error. The results indicate that： 1） Catchpole et al. method（When modeling sample size is 84）performs well in fuel moisture prediction. It shows Catchpole et al. （2001） method has a strong applicability in estimating fuel moisture from field data. At least 80 or more data are advised to be used and 30 data can also be used when error standard is not high（3%,for example）.2） The predicting results based on Nelson（1984） model are better than that based on Simard model when sample size is small,but when it is over 84 ,the two performances are not significantly different.

关 键 词：可燃物 模型 时滞 平衡含水率 

分 类 号：S762[农业科学—森林保护学]