基于数值模拟的海湾环境容量价值损失的预测评估——以厦门同安湾围填海为例  

Evaluation of losses in bay environmental capacity based on numerical simulation——a case study of sea reclamation in Tong'an Bay, Xiamen

作　　者：王萱[1] 陈伟琪[1] 江毓武[1] 张珞平[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学环境科学研究中心,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2010年第3期420-425,共6页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70771098)

摘　　要：基于海湾环境容量价值影响因素的分析,采用环境经济学的影子工程法,结合水动力数值模型及其与污染物扩散的耦合模型,建立了围填海导致的海湾环境容量价值损失的预测评估模型和方法,并以厦门同安湾为例,对同安湾4个围填海规划方案可能造成的环境容量价值的损失进行了预测评估.结果表明,方案1～方案4围填海面积依次为1.98,7.73,9.38,19.24km2,围填海造成的环境容量的损失依次为12281.3,48418.6,60706.6,132800.1万元/a,单位面积的损失依次为62.03,62.64,64.72,69.02元/(m2·a).围填海活动带来的环境成本不容忽视.基于评估结果,针对厦门围填海的现状提出了相关的政策建议.Based on an analysis of factors affecting the value of bay environmental capacity, a model evaluating the lost value of bay environmental capacity caused by sea reclamation was established using Shadow Project Method in environmental economics combined with hydrodynamic numerical model and hydrodynamic force-contaminant diffusion coupling model.The evaluation model was then applied to a case study of four planned sea reclamation projects in Tong＇an Bay, Xiamen.The lost value of environmental capacity caused by projects 1 to 4 would be 1.23×10^8, 4.84×10^8, 6.07×10^8, 1.33×10^9 Yuan/a, respectively;and the lost value per unit area would be 62.03, 62.64, 64.72, 69.02 Yuan /（m^2·a）, respectively.These environmental costs should be carefully examined in relevant project evaluations.Policy recommendations were presented according to the study results and current status of sea reclamation in Xiamen.

关 键 词：数值模拟 海湾环境容量 价值损失 预测评估 围填海 厦门同安湾 

分 类 号：X26[环境科学与工程—环境科学]