基于主成分分析的房地产上市公司盈利能力分析与预测  

Analysis and predictions of real estate company profitability based on principle componential analyses

作　　者：张红[1] 林荫[1] 刘平[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学建设管理系,北京100084

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第3期470-473,共4页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70673050)

摘　　要：为分析和预测中国房地产上市公司盈利状况,该文采用主成分分析法构造体现盈利能力的综合计量指标。选用2000—2007年的统计数据,在计算房地产上市公司盈利能力单项指标的基础上,通过因子分析提取主成分,确定综合计量指标,利用综合计量指标的多项统计量进行分析与预测。结果表明:中国房地产上市公司的总体盈利能力较好,但自2005年起,盈利能力低于平均水平的公司逐渐增加;2000—2007年房地产上市公司的盈利能力以年均5%的幅度逐年下降,未来二至三年下降趋势仍将持续;普通房地产上市公司盈利空间将缩小得更快,与平均水平间的差距会越来越大。A comprehensive profitability indicator was created to analyze and predict the profitability of listed real estate companies using principal componential analysis. Statistical data from 2000 - 2007 was used to analyze the individual profitability indicators of listed real estate companies to find the principle factors affecting their profitability and then identify comprehensive indicators. Statistics of the comprehensive indicators were used to predict the profitability. The results show that in general the Chinese listed real estate companies were profitable but the number of below average companies has gradually increased since 2005. The listed real estate companies＇ profitability has declined 5 % every year from 2000- 2007 and the down trend will continue for the following 2 - 3 years. The profit of common listed real estate companies will decrease faster with the increasing gaps between the profits of the common and the average companies.

关 键 词：房地产上市公司 盈利能力 分析 预测 主成分分析 

分 类 号：F293.35[经济管理—国民经济]