基于风险的交通网络可靠性分析方法  

Approach based on risk for traffic network reliability

作　　者：马寿峰[1] 贺正冰[1] 张思伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学系统工程研究所,天津300072

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2010年第3期550-556,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70671073);国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)(2006AA11Z210);天津市科技支撑计划重点项目(08ZCKFSF01000)

摘　　要：从风险角度提出了一种交通网络可靠性分析方法——基于风险的交通可靠性(Reliabilitybased on risk,RBR),并对其定义、形式与应用进行研究.首先提出RBR的概念,并对RBR与其他交通网络可靠性指标的异同进行了分析;通过高斯核估计,给出了基于历史数据的路段出行时间分布函数的估计与计算方法,从而得到该路段的RBR,并使用误差分析与返回检验对该方法的误差进行验证;随后使用天津某高速公路的历史观测数据对文中RBR及其计算方法进行验证;最后给出了RBR的其他形式——路径RBR、路网RBR的概念及相应的计算方法,从而将RBR推向更广泛的应用空间.This paper provides an approach based on risk for traffic network reliability,which is called RBR,and studies its definition,formulation and applications.First,the definition of RBR is proposed, and its differences from other traffic network reliabilities are compared.Then,an estimation approach for the distribution function of travel time on a link is given based on historical data by the kernel estimation method,and RBR on a link is able to obtain through this approach;the error analysis and back testing methods are employed to calculate the error of this approach.Furthermore,the historical data from a highway in Tianjin are used for the verification of RBR and its calculation.At last,Route RBR and Network RBR are discussed,respectively.

关 键 词：交通网络 风险 可靠性 

分 类 号：U113[交通运输工程]