ATOVS资料在淮河暴雨预报中的同化应用研究  

Assimilation of ATOVS and Its Application in the Heavy Rainfall over the Huaihe River Basin

作　　者：郭锐[1] 李泽椿 张国平 

机构地区：[1]北京市气象台,北京100089 [2]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2010年第2期1-12,共12页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40501049)

摘　　要：ATOVS资料的获取弥补了测站稀少地区常规观测资料的不足,尤其是有云条件下的温湿资料,这两种资料对于模式的降水预报极为重要。采用T213-SSI业务系统,对全球NOAA16、17的ATOVS资料进行同化试验,分析了ATOVS资料在极端暴雨天气预报中的应用效果。对2007年7月7—9日发生在淮河流域的一次暴雨过程进行数值模拟研究,设计3种同化方案,对比分析了不同方案的同化模拟结果。试验表明:长期同化AMSU资料,可以改善降水预报,尤其是降水强度的改善明显。通过连续同化,卫星资料能改进大尺度环境场、温湿场和动力场。剔除AMSU-A地面通道及低层700 hPa通道资料的同化效果要优于全部同化,对于暴雨中心的模拟位置、强度有较明显改进,中高层形势场的降水直接影响系统也更加接近实况,温湿场、风场的调整作用尤其明显。ATOVS data make up for the conventional observations in some areas with scarce stations,and can particularly provide the temperature and humidity data under the condition with cloud for precipitation forecast by model.In order to examine the application and capacity of T213-SSI system and evaluate the impact of ATOVS data on numerical forecast of heavy rainfall in China,the T213-SSI system is used to assimilate ATOVS data from NOAA16,17 satellites.Then a heavy rainfall event during July 7 to 9,2007 over the Huaihe River Basin is simulated with different assimilation schemes in order to compare and analyze the results of assimilation and simulation.The main conclusions to be drawn are as follows：after AMSU data being added into the T213L31 model,the forecast of precipitation is more exact,especially the intensity of precipitation.By continuous assimilation,temperature fields and humidity fields are improved obviously. After eliminating AMSU-A terrestrial channel data,the simulating effect is better than assimilating completely on the location and the intensity of the heavy rainfall centre.Especially,the synoptic situation, the temperature,humidity and wind fields are improved much closer to the real states compared with the assimilating AMSU-A terrestrial channel data.

关 键 词：AMSU资料 变分同化 SSI同化系统 暴雨 

分 类 号：P[天文地球]