风险决策模糊数学模型在企业决策中的应用  

Fuzzy Mathematical Model of Risk Decision-making and Application of Business Decision-making

作　　者：陈又星[1] 徐辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东商学院工商管理学院,广州510320

出　　处：《工业工程与管理》2010年第2期113-116,共4页Industrial Engineering and Management

基　　金：广东省软科学研究项目(粤科规划字【2009】198号)

摘　　要：风险型决策问题是决策科学中的一个重要问题,本文针对其模糊不确定性,建立了自然状态概率的模糊估算模型,然后,基于决策论中的最优期望益损值决策准则进行最优决策,并通过实际应用说明该模型的有效性和可靠性,本文的研究为风险型决策问题的解决提供了一种新的定量分析方法,因此,具有重要的理论与应用价值。Risk-based decision-making is an important problem of decision-making science.This paper establishes Fuzzy estimation model of natural state probability for its fuzzy uncertainty and makes optimal decision-making based on the value of the optimal decision-making criteria of expectations of gain or loss.Then this paper proved the validity and reliability of Fuzzy estimation model through the practical application.This paper studies the issue of risk-based decision-making solution and provides a new quantitative analysis method.Therefore,It has an important theoretical and applied value.

关 键 词：风险型决策 自然状态 概率 模糊估算模型 

分 类 号：F276.3[经济管理—企业管理]