基于GM(1,1)模型的煤矿百万吨死亡率的预测研究  

Study of Predicting Death Rate Per Million Tons in Mines Based on GM (1,1) Model

作　　者：江成玉[1] 李春辉[2] 苏恒瑜[3] 

机构地区：[1]贵州大学矿业学院,贵阳550003 [2]昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,昆明650093 [3]贵州省煤矿设计研究院,贵阳550025

出　　处：《煤炭技术》2010年第4期81-83,共3页Coal Technology

摘　　要：应用灰色系统理论,建立了煤矿百万吨死亡率的GM(1,1)动态预测模型,对我国近几年的煤矿百万吨死亡率进行灰色预测,预测精度基本可靠。结果表明:该模型的建立是正确的,并具有一定的实用价值,使预测结果科学可靠,为煤矿的安全管理提供了准确的理论依据。A dynamic GM（1,1 ） model is set up for the death-rate per million tons in mines by using the gray system theory, a gray prediction for the death-rate per million tons in mines has been completed in recent years,and the accuracy of prediction is basic reliable. The result indicates that the model is correct and has certainly practical value, the results of prediction is scientific and reliable, to provide an accurate theory for safety management in mines.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 灰色预测 百万吨死亡率 

分 类 号：TD76[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]