应急避难场所建设进度优化模型研究  

Optimized Schedule Planning Models for Emergency Shelters Construction

作　　者：陈志芬[1,2] 李强[3] 王瑜[2] 陈晋[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京城市系统工程研究中心,北京100089 [3]北京师范大学资源学院

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2010年第2期160-164,共5页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家科技部"十一五"科技支撑计划项目(2006BAK01A07;2006BAJ10B03);资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室开放基金(A0620)

摘　　要：以规划效率评价为基础,定义了应急避难场所的公益收益,体现在服务性、可达性和安全性3个方面。以全部应急避难场所在整个建设规划期的总公益收益最大化为目标,建立了无偏好和有偏好两类建设进度优化模型,对应急避难场所在规划期内各年的投资额度、建设对象和建设数量进行优化。案例研究结果表明,无偏好模型能最大限度地获得公益收益,但不能很好地表达公众的真实需求;有偏好模型,不可避免会造成一定公益收益损失,但能更多地考虑实际存在的各方面影响因素,更接近真实的决策。实际应用中对模型的选择应根据具体情况确定。In terms of efficiency assessment,the welfare utility of emergency shelters based on DEA （data envelopment analysis） efficiency was firstly defined as the sum of service capacity,accessibility and safety level.Then taking the total welfare utility of emergency shelters in the whole construction period as optimization objective function,the optimized schedule planning models without and with consideration of user preference for emergency shelters construction was developed to optimize how many emergency shelters and which one should be constructed in specific year during construction period.The case study reveals that the two models are effective but with different advantages respectively.The model without consideration of preference can maximize welfare utility but being short of flexibility to meet actual needs and constrains.While the other model can make a more practical schedule but suffering from some loss of welfare utility.Selection of a suitable model depends on application objectives.

关 键 词：应急避难场所 数据包络分析(DEA)效率 公益收益 进度安排 偏好 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]