汇率变动对服务出口的影响:以美国为例  

The Influence of Real Exchange Rate fluctuations to Services Export:the Case of America

作　　者：邱小欢[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学国际经济与贸易系

出　　处：《亚太经济》2010年第2期66-70,共5页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

摘　　要：通过构建一个由外国实际收入、汇率水平、货物出口以及经GARCH(1,1)模型估计所得条件方差作为汇率风险代理变量组成的服务出口模型和自回归分布滞后估计,结果显示,汇率水平变动与服务出口之间确实存在负相关关系,但汇率风险却有助于推动服务出口,同时累积净效应还表明汇率水平变动是影响服务出口的主导因素。The paper constructs a services export model composed of the foreign actual income,exchange rate,goods export and the conditional variance estimated by GARCH（1,1） model as the proxy variable of exchange rate risk.In view of the lags of variables,the paper adopts the ADL model to estimate the equation parameters,and brings the indirect effects of the exchange rate to services export transmited by goods export into the analysis framework.The final results show there will be a negetive relationship between the exchange rate fluctuation and services export,while exchange rate risk will push services export.

关 键 词：服务出口 实际有效汇率 效应 GARCH ADL 

分 类 号：F836.9[经济管理—金融学]