一类随机服务系统的非参数统计分析与预测  

Nonparametric Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of the Random Service System

作　　者：陈静[1] 杨巧君[1] 周灿灿[1] 梅雪峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江教育学院理工学院,浙江杭州310012

出　　处：《浙江教育学院学报》2010年第1期89-94,102,共7页Journal of ZHEJIANG Education Institute

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(10901044)

摘　　要：数据统计分析是解决随机服务系统的基础,在实际应用中极易忽视.首先,基于非参数统计分析理论,给出了分布函数的估计及离散型和连续性两类总体非参数假设检验的数学模型.然后,对某医院眼科排队模型的历史数据进行了详细的统计分析,得到了该随机服务系统的输入过程为Possion分布、服务时间为一般分布的M/G/C/□/□排队系统,并依据经验分布函数,给出了非急诊病人等待时间的预测区间.Statistical data analysis plays an important role in the random service system, for it＇ s the first step in solving the system, and many researches pay no regard to this. Given in this paper are the mathematical models of the estimator of cumulative distribution function and nonparametric hypothesis testing for discrete and continuous populations based on the nonparametric statistical theories. And then the statistical analyses of the observed data in a department of ophthalmic of ABC hospital are made. The results show that the queuing system in this department is M/G/C/∞/∞. Last, the forecasting interval of the waiting time of non-emergency case is derived based on the empirical distribution function.

关 键 词：随机服务系统 非参数假设检验 经验分布函数 

分 类 号：O226[理学—运筹学与控制论] O212.1[理学—数学]