新疆近50a来降水量时空变化及其突变分析  

Spatial-Temporal Variation of the Precipitation in Xinjiang and its Abrupt Change in Recent 50 Years

作　　者：张生军[1] 王天明[1] 王涛[2] 卢爱刚[3] 葛剑平[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学景观生态与可持续性科学研究中心,北京100875 [2]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [3]渭南师范学院环境与生命科学系,陕西渭南714000

出　　处：《中国沙漠》2010年第3期668-674,共7页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：中国科学院咨询项目资助

摘　　要：基于新疆53个气象台站1960—2005年逐月降水资料,通过Mann-Kendall非参数趋势检验方法,对新疆近50 a来年降水量和12个月降水量的趋势进行了分析,并计算12个月对年降水量的贡献率,同时通过SequentialMann-Kendall方法分析了27个台站年降水量显著增加趋势发生的时间突变点。结果表明,新疆近50 a来年降水量显著增加,北疆和南疆趋势最为明显;其中冬半年(1、2、11月和12月)这4个月的降水量增加趋势显著,对新疆年降水量的贡献较大;新疆大部分台站年降水量趋势发生突变的时间点在20世纪80年代以后。The spatial-temporal variation of the annual and monthly precipitation and the abrupt change of the annual precipitation were analyzed with Mann-Kendall trend test and sequential Mann-Kendall test based on monthly precipitation data of 53 climatic stations from 1960 to 2005. The results indicated： （1） The precipitation significantly increased in recent 50 years, especially in Northern and Southern part of Xinjiang. （2） The precipitation increased remarkably in January, February, November and December, contributing more to the total annual precipitation. （3） The abrupt changes of the annual precipitation for the most of 27 stations took place after 1980s. Over all, a abrupt change in the trend of the annual precipitation for the whole study area took place in 1986.

关 键 词：降水 时空变化 MANN-KENDALL检验 突变点 新疆 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]