科研院所R&D人力资本投资风险评价——基于改进突变理论  

Investment Risk Evaluation of R&D Human Capital in Scientific Research Institutions:Based on Improved Catastrophe Theory

作　　者：王德江[1,2] 孙剑平[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学经济管理学院,南京210094 [2]南京电子技术研究所,南京210039

出　　处：《技术经济》2010年第4期6-11,共6页Journal of Technology Economics

摘　　要：风险评价是科研院所R&D人力资本投资风险管理的重要内容。针对现有评价方法在指标权重设置方面的缺陷,本文将突变理论应用于科研院所R&D人力资本投资风险评价中,并对突变综合评价方法进行改进,以提高综合评价结果的分辨水平。应用实例分析结果表明该方法能够清晰地反映评价值的等级和大小,且计算出的风险值的分布更趋于合理。Risk evaluation is an important content of risk management for R ＆ D human capital investment in scientific research institutrons. In order to solve the flaws of traditional methods in weight setting of indices, catastrophe theory is applied to investment risk evaluation for R^D human capital investment in scientific research institutions in this paper. Furthermore,the catastrophe comprehensive evaluation method is improved as to increase the distinguishing level to comprehensive evaluation results. The application example indicates that the proposed method can clearly reflect the evaluation grade and the calculated risk distribution is more reasonable.

关 键 词：风险评价 突变理论 R&D人力资本 科研院所 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] C931[经济管理—管理学]