导弹靶试命中精度鉴定方案新方法  

A New Approach to Appraise Missile Hit Accuracy in Range Test

作　　者：赵亚锋[1] 方洋旺[1] 蔡文新[1] 

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学工程学院,西安710038

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2010年第4期13-16,共4页Fire Control & Command Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(60674031);总装预研重点基金(6140529);国家"863"计划基金资助项目(2006AA701307)

摘　　要：针对导弹武器系统的命中精度战技指标,基于Bayes小子样估计理论,提出了综合贝叶斯理论和概率圆法确定导弹靶试命中精度鉴定的新方法,给出了此鉴定方案的具体计算公式和设计步骤,并进行了置信度分析,同时着重对使用方风险和生产方风险进行建模研究;最后通过仿真算例分析了导弹命中精度鉴定方案可行性。仿真算例表明,提出的评估方法简单有效,为导弹靶试命中精度鉴定方案选择提供一定的理论和实际应用价值。Aiming at the hit accuracy of missile weapon system that is the important guideline of tactics and technology,the new Bayes theory and approach of CEP appraising was put forward based on the Bayes specimen evaluation theory;the formula and steps of designing of appraising plan was presented and its reliability was analyzed,and the models of risk for user and producer was built and researched;finally the feasibility of appraising plan for hit accuracy of missile was analyzed by simulating.The simulation shows that the approach proposed in this paper is reasonable and simple to implement,which provides the value of theory and application for missile hit precision identifying.

关 键 词：概率圆 命中精度 风险 BAYES 

分 类 号：TJ760.6[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]