雾天高速公路网行程时间可靠性评价方法  

Reliability evaluation on travel time in freeway network under fog environment influence

作　　者：吴炼[1] 李旭宏[1] 王婧[1] 刘兆斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,江苏南京210096

出　　处：《解放军理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第2期233-238,共6页Journal of PLA University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50708020)

摘　　要：为有效评价区域高速公路网布局的合理性,基于对雾天影响下高速公路网行程时间可靠性的研究,寻求路网中的关键路段,并以此作为改善和优化公路交通网络的依据。通过对网络运行时间可靠性和雾源分布随机性的分析,提出高速公路网路段单元的行程时间可靠性的综合评价模型。并结合用户平衡模型和串并联理论,构建高速公路网络系统的时间可靠度计算模型。利用Matlab工具箱对随机雾源进行模拟仿真,结合MonteCarlo方法求解模型,以评价随机雾天高速公路网的行程时间可靠性,最后通过实例验证说明了该方法可以合理地评价随机雾源影响下路网的行程时间可靠性,并有效地找出路网中受雾影响最明显的关键路段。To assess the rationality of regional freeway network layout, based on the reliability analysis of the network and the randomness analysis of the fog center, a comprehensive travel time reliability model was set up which combined the influence of fog environment and the uncertain demand. The user equilibrium formula and series-parallel theory were adopted to improve the travel time reliability mode/for the entire arterial freeway network. Furthermore, Matlab toolbox was utilized to simulate random fog, and Monte Carlo method was applied to solve the model under fog environment. A simple numerical example was used to illustrate the applicability. Experimental results indicate that this method can be reasonable to evaluate the reliability of the freeway network under stochastic fog influence and is capable to identify the most vulnerable sections of the network.

关 键 词：时间可靠度 雾源分布 高速公路网 MONTE Carlo仿真 

分 类 号：U412.36[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]