基于遗传算法的投影寻踪方法在洞庭湖区洪灾易损性评价中的应用  

Application of Projection Pursuit Method Based on Genetic Algorithm to Vulnerability Evaluation of Flood Disasters

作　　者：毛德华[1] 邹君[1,2] 李杰[1] 李景保[1] 金菊良[3] 

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院,湖南长沙410081 [2]衡阳师范学院资源环境与旅游管理系,湖南衡阳421008 [3]合肥工业大学士木水利学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2010年第2期389-396,共8页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：湖南省教育厅重点项目(09A055);湖南省重点建设学科自然地理学项目;国家自然科学基金项目(70771035)资助

摘　　要：大多数易损性评价方法,都需先定分级标准,且评价结果等级分辩率较粗.权重的确定受主观因素的影响,权重值因人而异,导致评价结果存在差异.投影寻踪方法(PP方法),可以克服以上的不足.基于实数编码的加速遗传算法可以解决PP方法计算量很大的问题.运用改进的遗传投影寻踪法,选择5个典型指标对湖南省洞庭湖区30个堤垸洪灾易损性进行了评价.结果表明:影响洞庭湖区洪涝易损性的主要因素是险堤长占总堤长的比例、控制点堤顶高程与历年最高水位平均差额.洞庭湖区洪涝易损性总体程度较高且无明显地区差异;重点堤垸与蓄洪堤垸易损性程度差异较大,前轻后重;易损性程度呈现出堤垸平均规模越小、易损性程度越高的规律.同时,与基于因素成对比较法的多因素综合评价结果进行对比,表明PP方法客观可靠,表征信息丰富,结果合理,具有有效性和通用性.In the available evaluation methods,the classification criterion must be ascertained in advance in the applied methods of vulnerability evaluation,and the grades of vulnerability are discrete and glancing. The weight value is dependent on the person who operates the evaluation,so the evaluation results are difference one another. The Projection Pursuit （PP） method can resolve the above shortages. The calculation complex of PP method can be resolve by means of the method of real coded Accelerating Genetic Algorithm （RAGA）. The quantitative assessment of vulnerability of flood disaster of 30 polders in Dongting Lake area is investigated by means of 5 typical indexes and PP method with RAGA. The research results show that the key factors that controlling the vulnerability are the proportion of danger bank length to total bank length and the average margin between the elevation of levee and highest water level in past years. It is found that the total vulnerability degree of flood disaster of all polders is more serious and has no obvious local differentiation;The vulnerability degrees have obvious differentiation between important polders and flood storage polders,and the vulnerability degree is more serious in the flood storage than in the important polders; the less the average scale of polders is,the serious the vulnerability degrees of these polders are. The contrast analysis results between factor gemination compare method and PP method show that PP method is of impersonality and credibility,abundance in information and reasonable,with validity and universality.

关 键 词：洪灾 易损性评价 遗传算法 投影寻踪方法 堤垸 洞庭湖区 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] TU352.4[建筑科学—结构工程]