近48年新疆乌-昌地区气候变化  

Climate Change in the Urumqi-Changji Region of Xinjiang in Resent 48 Years

作　　者：普宗朝[1] 张山清[1,2] 李景林[1] 王胜兰[3] 张建伟 阿帕尔 

机构地区：[1]新疆乌鲁木齐市气象局,新疆乌鲁木齐830001 [2]兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州730000 [3]新疆气象局,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [4]新疆昌吉地区气象局,新疆昌吉831100

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2010年第3期422-432,共11页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：新疆气象科研项目(200708;200309)资助

摘　　要：根据新疆乌-昌地区15个气象台站1961—2008年的气候资料，采用气候倾向率、Mann—Kendall突变检测、Morlet小波、自然正交分解（EOF）和Kriging插值技术等方法，对近48年平均气温、降水量、日照时数和平均风速以及年潜在蒸散量和地表湿润指数等要素的变化趋势和特征进行了研究。结果表明：①近48年乌-昌地区年平均气温、降水量呈升高（增多）趋势，日照时数和年平均风速呈减少（小）趋势，受其影响，潜在蒸散量明显减小而地表湿润指数有所增大，气候总体呈较明显的“暖湿化”趋势。但受自然环境和城市化效应的影响，各地气候“暖湿化”的速率有明显差异；②突变检测表明，乌-昌地区年平均气温、降水量和湿润指数分别在1972年、1986年和1985年发生了显著的突变性升高，年日照时数、平均风速和潜在蒸散量分别于1972年、1979年和1985年发生了显著的突变性减小；③各气候要素分别存在4～24年的周期性变化；④各要素的主要空间分布特征均是同向变化，其中年平均气温、风速和地表湿润指数空间分布的同向性强于其他要素；⑤乌-昌地区年平均气温、降水量、日照时数、潜在蒸散量和湿润指数与地理坐标均具有极显著的多项式回归关系，这为各气候要素的栅格化处理提供了理论依据。Based on the climatic data from 15 meteorological stations in the Urumqi-Changji region of Xinjiang during the period of 1961 -2008, in this paper the basic change characteristics of climatic factors, such as temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, wind speed, potential evapotranspiration and surface humidity index, are analyzed using the methods of linear regression, wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall abrupt test, EOF and Kriging interpolation. The main results are as follows ： （ 1 ） The average annual temperature and precipitation were increased in the Urumqi-Changji region in resent 48 years, but the annual sunshine duration and wind speed were decreased; under the comprehensive influence of such changes, the annual potential evapotranspiration was significant de- creased and the surface humidity index was increased, the climate was in a warming-wetting trend, but the warming-wetting trend was different from different regions due to the difference of natural environment and urbanization effect; （2） The abrupt examination reveals that the average annual temperature, precipitation and surface humidity index were increased in an abrupt way in 1972, 1986 and 1985, but the annual sunshine duration, average wind speed and potential evapotranspiration were reduced in an abrupt way in 1972, 1979 and 1985, respectively; （3） There were the 4 -24 years periodical changes of climatic factors; （4） The main spatial distribution of climatic factors was in a synchronous change, in which the synchronization of average annual temperature, wind speed and surface humidity index was more obvious than that of other factors ; （5） There were significant multinomial regressions between the average annual temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, potential evapotranspiration and surface humidity index and the geographical location, which provides a theoretical basis for the grid treatment of climatic factors.

关 键 词：气候变化 气候倾向率 小波分析 突变检测 暖湿化 乌鲁木齐-昌吉 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]