中国货币供应量的产出、通货膨胀效应实证分析  

The Effect of Money Supply on Aggregate Output in China

作　　者：张玮[1] 苏珺[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《经济问题》2010年第5期72-75,共4页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"宏观经济政策对就业的影响研究"项目(70675473)

摘　　要：采用中国1978～2008年的年度数据,运用VAR模型实证分析中国货币供应量政策对总产出和通货膨胀的效应。主要进行了脉冲反应分析和方差分解分析,并结合中国货币供应量政策的特点,得出以下结论:(1)中国货币政策在短期内对产出有影响,在长期是中性的;(2)货币供应量无论在长期还是短期内都对物价具有系统性影响;(3)中国货币政策有效,但效果有限;(4)中国货币供应量受到物价和产出变动一定的影响,即货币供给具有一定内生性。The paper makes use of VAR model to analyze the effect of money supply on aggregate output in China,in term of the data from 1978 to 2008. Main methods are response of impulse function and variance decomposition. Combined with the feature of money supply in China. The paper finally gives the following conclusions. In China,the effect of money supply has positive effect on output in short run,but neutral effect in the long run. Money supply in China influence general price level both in short and long run . Monetary policies in China have effect but they are limited. Change of general price and output have effects money supply,which is endogenous in China.

关 键 词：货币供应量 向量自回归 脉冲响应分析 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]