综合GPS和NCEP在区域降雨预报中的应用研究  

Regional precipitation forecast using GPS and NCEP

作　　者：常亮[1] 何秀凤[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学卫星空间及信息应用研究所,南京210098

出　　处：《中国科学：物理学、力学、天文学》2010年第5期685-692,共8页Scientia Sinica Physica,Mechanica & Astronomica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(批准号:40974001);国家科技支撑计划(编号:2008BAB29B01-6)资助项目

摘　　要：利用GPS估计大气可降雨量(Precipitable Water Vapor,PWV)时,除了需要GPS观测数据外,还需要对相应的GPS测站进行气象观测.然而,我国多数GPS网是用于大地测量学的应用与研究,并未配备相应的气象传感器.针对这一情况,本文利用美国环境预报中心(NCEP)和国家大气研究中心(NCAR)联合推出的逐6h再分析资料,提出一种GPS测站附近无气象传感器时估算PWV的新方法.利用此方法对上海地区的GPS数据进行试验,结果证明,即使在GPS测站附近没有气象观测设备时,地基GPS气象学同样能够获得精度较高的PWV,可以用于区域降雨预报.Ground global positioning system （GPS） meteorology is one of the methods to improve the mesoscale convection forecast. However, besides the GPS observation data, site-specific meteorological observations are essential to derive the GPS precipitable water vapor （PWV）. Furthermore, many GPS networks are built for the purpose of geophysical applications of geodesy, and they don’t have the meteorological sensors installed together with the GPS antenna at all. This paper has provided in detail an analysis technique to estimate GPS PWV by using National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR） global reanalysis data set when the meteorological observations are unavailable. Then the method is implemented over Shanghai, China, and the results show that the technique can be helpful to the precipitation forecast of the hydropower station with GPS even when the odditional meteorological sensors are unavailable.

关 键 词：地基GPS气象学 降雨预报 NCEP/NCAR 插值 PWV 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P228.4