水土资源对旱涝灾害的承险脆弱性研究方法探讨  

Assessment Methods for Hazard Bearing Vulnera bility of Water and Land Resources to Floods and Droughts

作　　者：龙鑫[1,2] 成升魁[1] 甄霖[1] 杨莉[1,2] 姜鲁光[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《资源科学》2010年第5期1000-1005,共6页Resources Science

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题:"中国重大自然灾害风险等级综合评估技术研究"(编号:2008BAK50B05);国家重点基础研究发展计划:"中国主要陆地生态系统服务功能与生态安全"(编号:2009CB421106);国家科技支撑计划课题:"国家生态恢复重建的综合监测评估关键技术研发"(编号:2006BAC08B06)

摘　　要：本文从水土资源作为自然灾害承险体的角度,探讨水土资源对旱涝灾害的承险脆弱性。研究构建了影响水土资源承险体的脆弱性评价关键指标体系。并结合通用脆弱性指数(PVI)对影响水土资源的承险脆弱性的指标进行了初步探讨。分析表明,物理暴露量以受灾面积以及灾害的等级和发生的频率来表征,内在脆弱性以土地利用类型和水质来表征,区域应灾能力分为基础应灾能力和专项应灾能力,基础应灾能力以国内生产总值和人均国内生产总值两个指标表示,对旱灾的专项应灾能力以有效灌溉面积、水库库容量、机井数目、水田缺水率和旱地失灌率表示,涝灾以提防长度和水库库容量来度量。通过评价水土资源的承险脆弱性,可以为减灾政策的制定和实施、资源管理和减灾投资提供依据。Hazard bearing vulnerability is of crucial importance in assessing hazard risk.It seems that natural resources research primarily focuses on resources exploration and utilization,with less studies being performed on the relationship between natural resources and natural disasters;the latter has a significant influence on the former.Assessment for hazard bearing vulnerability of natural resources has been rarely carried out.Water and land resources constitute the foundation of agricultural production,which is dominated in economic areas in China.Thus assessment of their hazard bearing vulnerability is of more significance.This paper aims to analyze the hazard bearing vulnerability of water and land resources to floods and droughts.The authors established key indicators for assessing the hazard bearing vulnerability of water and land resources to floods and droughts based on the Prevalent Vulnerability Index（PVI）.The index consists of 3 sub-categories,i. e.,physical exposure,inherent vulnerability and regional resilience.The indicators of physical exposure include the area and length of affected resources and intensity and frequency of the hazard events.Inherent vulnerability of land resources can be evaluated by land use types. Meanwhile,water quality is used to measure the inherent vulnerability of water resources.Regional resilience is generally grouped into two categories,which are basic resilience capacity and specific resilience capacity.Basic reliance capacity indicates the whole hazard relief capacity of a region which can be evaluated by the Gross Domestic Product（GDP）and GDP per capita.Specific resilience capacity can be measured by investment to reduce hazard effects.As for droughts, regional specific resilience capacity can be measured by reservoir capacity and numbers of power-operated well and water shortage rate for paddy land and irrigation loss rate for dry land.As to hazard events of floods,levee length and reservoir capacity can be used to assess the specific resilience capacity of a regi

关 键 词：水土资源 旱涝灾害 承险体 脆弱性评估 指标体系 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]