利用炮掘工作面瓦斯涌出时间序列预测工作面突出危险性  

Using Time Series of Gas Emission from Blast Drivage Face to Predict Coal and Gas Outburst Hazard in Face

作　　者：邹云龙[1] 赵旭生[1,2] 孙东玲[1,2] 文光才[1] 雷洪波[3] 

机构地区：[1]煤炭科学研究总院重庆研究院,重庆400037 [2]山东科技大学,山东青岛266510 [3]松藻煤电公司渝阳煤矿,重庆綦江401443

出　　处：《矿业安全与环保》2010年第3期7-10,共4页Mining Safety & Environmental Protection

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划项目(2006BAK03B02);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2005CB221505)

摘　　要：炮掘工作面瓦斯涌出是一个极为复杂的非线性时间序列,其中隐含了大量的突出危险信息。将这些隐含信息显现化,并建立其与炮掘工作面突出危险性之间的联系是研究炮掘工作面瓦斯涌出时间序列特性的主要目的。通过对松藻渝阳煤矿一典型炮掘工作面瓦斯涌出数据的观测,首次利用时间序列方法分离了炮掘工作面瓦斯涌出数据的趋势项、周期项以及噪声项,实现了对炮掘工作面瓦斯涌出的辨识和重构原复杂系统。发现不同突出危险区域,掘进工作面瓦斯涌出时间序列趋势项、周期项以及噪声项之间存在显著的差异,并利用这些差异成功地对考察巷道突出危险性进行了准确的预测。Gas emission from the blast drivage face is an extremely complex nonlinear time series, which implies a great deal of messages about coal and gas outburst hazard. To show these implicit messages and establish a linkage between these messages and coal and gas outburst hazard in blast drivage face are the main purpose for studying time series characteristics of gas emission from the blast drivage face. Through the data observation for the gas emission from a typical blast drivage face in Yuyang Coal Mine of Songzao Coal Mining Area, the trend parts, cycle parts and random noise parts of gas emission from the blast drivage face were first separated by using the time series method, thus realizing the recognition and reconstruction of the original complicated system of gas emission from the blast drivage face. It was found that in different dangerous regions of outbursts, clear differences existed beteewn the trend parts, cycle parts and random noise parts of gas emission, and accurate predition for the outburst hazard in the investigated roadway was successfully made by using these differences.

关 键 词：炮掘工作面 瓦斯涌出 时间序列分析 煤与瓦斯突出预测 

分 类 号：TD713[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]